I have visited the home of a successful Japanese businessman that had his ancestors’ Samurai Sword hanging on the wall. This man did not speak English because that was the language of the enemy. Yet he demanded that his children learn English, because Japan was the greatest nation on earth, but was beaten by the United States so they were a worthy opponent. The most fascinating Japanese person I have met was Saburo Sakai, the naval aviator and ace. Sushi was a staple in our diet at home since the 1970’s, long before it became a popular food item in other parts of the world. I have had long conversations with sushi chefs in little hamlets outside of Hiroshima (one of which still was tested weekly for radiation levels as a nuclear bomb survivor). For almost a year I visited a construction site of a building being built for a U.S. enterprise by a Japanese firm, interviewing the principle engineers and his staff, and published several academic papers on my findings. All that being said, I am the first to say I am not a Japanese expert. From aimai (ambiguity) and amakudari (the nation’s descent from heaven) to haragei (literally, "belly art"; implicit, unspoken communication) and Wah (harmony), Japan defies easy explanation. 
Perhaps my sister who is fluent in Japanese and studied at Wasada University in Tokyo could be considered more of an expert, but alas this is my blog, so I will endeavor to offer my imperfect thoughts.Japan, by the end of 2010 will no longer be the world’s second largest economy. That position will be usurped by China. Nearly a third of Japan’s population will be pensioners with government guaranteed benefits (although not at the same level as the EU and the U.S.), but with unemployment at its highest post WWII rates and the global economy trying to find its way out of recession, tax income will be lower to support those pensioners. Interestingly, like choices made in many other countries recently, the people of Japan have made a populist choice in their 2009 elections.
Most political pundits suggest no immediate changes in U.S. relations with Japan following the election of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and Yukio Hatoyama as Prime Minister.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) that has ruled post-war Japan with little regard for other political influences is now in the loyal opposition seat. No matter what the potential policy changes, the DPJ will be flexing its muscles and the LDP will struggle in adjusting its processes to influence from the minority.
The DPJ has an aggressive domestic agenda that will keep it preoccupied in the short-term and if anything, will support U.S. National Interests by giving the U.S. some adjustment time as it continues to mend some of its own international bridges. Hatoyama’s populist agenda (clothed in a kamishimo of conservatism and a haori of traditionalism) will not look at all like the new populist agendas in Latin America (but should play well in Brazil, Japan’s biggest partner south of the Rio Grande). The U.S. should expect a shift and even a closer alignment with the Obama administration’s populist perspectives.
The first public outing that includes both the U.S. and Japan will be the G-20 Summit in the U.S. in September. The U.S. can expect a little push-back from Japan on U.S. global economic solutions that include expanded American-style free trade, but also some minor celebration of common ground and coalition building between both countries on a host of topics from medical system modernization, climate and environmental issues, and policies regarding common enemies.
On the issues of common enemies, over time the U.S. can expect friction from the DPJ on the housing and support of nearly 50,000 American troops on Japanese soil. The move of U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam, started under the LDP will accelerate and be completed before the 2014 deadline. The brunt of the cost ($6 billion of the $10 billion price tag) presently being born by Japan will be a topic of discussion and there will probably be an adjustment made to appease the DPJ. Hatoyama in his recent New York Times article suggests a shift in focus to closer alignment with China and South Korea, and other East Asian countries, but that a cornerstone of the Japanese security alignment will be its relationship with the U.S. In recent years, the Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) has expanded its roles, while still maintaining the breadth and depth of its capabilities and operations as outlined in the Japanese Constitution.
The world can expect the JSDF to continue to expand its multinational security operations as it expands the interpretation of its constitutional roles. Koizumi’s and Abae’s promises to amend Article 9 allowing Japan’s military to venture abroad will be set on the shelf for the time being. No actual revision of the constitution releasing the Japanese military from its strict self-defense roles is anywhere on the horizon. Japanese relations with Russia, India, and Australia will also see a shift in focus. Hatoyama has vowed to find a solution to the long-standing feud over territorial disputes with Russia. Of course Russia is the present owner of what Japan wants back, so I see little movement there. Japanese and Indian interests continue to find common ground as India looks East and Japan expands its role in Asia. India’s concern of China establishing “too friendly” of ties with Pakistan and Bangladesh may accelerate Indian-Japanese relations. Free trade interests and raw materials fuel closer ties between Japan and Australia... although the accelerated expansions of the Yakuza and the 'Boryokudan' (the violent ones) into Australia have not helped matters.
Japan and the DPJ will be looking for more respect and a leading role in the international arena. Initially they will attempt to make good on their domestic election promises, but their international interests are closely connected to many of the domestic issues challenging Japan. U.S. national interests will not be severely tried with this change in the Japanese political landscape.
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